The Yield Curve Has Inverted.  

 

Market Watcher
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Posts: 191
04/12/2018 5:27 pm  

This means short term bonds are paying more than long term bonds. Right now the 2 year is at 2.819 and the 5 year is at 2.800.

This is normally a leading indicator of a recession. The market is saying they think long term rates will be lower due to weaker growth. Not good.

I am not saying we are looking at a total collapse, but get ready for some pain.

Keep an eye on those 401(k)'s gentlemen. 


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Hitman
Founder .
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 558
04/12/2018 7:46 pm  

good looking out market !

men, we are on our own. the best you can hope for is good company along the way. the good company is here.


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The Evil Genius
Admin
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Posts: 1466
04/12/2018 8:09 pm  

That is excellent news. One of the funds open to me is based upon bonds and the current yield is is only .05-.07% higher than I'm getting on my Treasury notes. That fund may generally yields the least but never actually loses whereas the other funds DO so the question is why would I take the risk of losing money for a mere potential gain of less than 1%? MMmmmmm


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MG-ɹǝʍo┴
Founder..
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Posts: 2924
04/12/2018 8:22 pm  

True equality dictates we all move to the lowest common denominator, in other words, POVERTY!  😩  😩  😩  😩  😩 


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Market Watcher
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04/12/2018 11:47 pm  

Not to derail my own thread, but now I'm pissed. I made this post this morning before the DOW went down 799 points. I just watched the news and they blame.........Guess who?

President Trump. 

The fucking yield curve INVERTED!

No mention of the bond market.

This from a business analyst?

Pathetic. 

Fortunately, the market is closed tomorrow. Gives the people who know what is going on a chance to think. 


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Market Watcher
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04/12/2018 11:51 pm  
Posted by: MG-ɹǝʍo┴

True equality dictates we all move to the lowest common denominator, in other words, POVERTY!  😩  😩  😩  😩  😩 

Poverty? We don't do that here. 

👍


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Itsallbs
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27/12/2018 2:24 pm  

No we know Watcher;  you win whatever happens.

 

It'sallbs | Leave means Leave| UK owes the EU £0 and must pay £0| £60 billion for the privilege of being avassal state? As a previous PM once said NO,NO,NO


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Market Watcher
Moderator
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Posts: 191
27/12/2018 2:32 pm  

Well, I didn't really win anything. I just called the market downturn. The good news is as of this morning the yield curve is back to normal. I expect profit taking today after yesterday's run up followed by more volatility through the first of the year. 


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may72020
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27/12/2018 2:45 pm  

I have seen other signs of a recession. I think there is a reaction to  how the economy took off after Trump was elected. We had 8 years of boat anchor up the ass obummer, then we let loose with trump. We went through the same cycle with Reagan in  1982


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Stealth
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Itsallbs
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27/12/2018 3:00 pm  
Posted by: Market Watcher

Well, I didn't really win anything. I just called the market downturn. The good news is as of this morning the yield curve is back to normal. I expect profit taking today after yesterday's run up followed by more volatility through the first of the year. 

I meant banks win whatever happnes...

too big to fail , engineered bailout, wealth grab after engineered collapse etc,etc,etc

I have seen other signs of a recession. I think there is a reaction to  how the economy took off after Trump was elected. We had 8 years of boat anchor up the ass obummer, then we let loose with trump. We went through the same cycle with Reagan in  1982

Depends whether further interest rate rises in 2019 expedite a bubble burst. 

The run up of 1000 points ...

What is next?

(For anyone who may not know, a run up is a significant increase over a short period of time such as 1000 points in a day.)

It'sallbs | Leave means Leave| UK owes the EU £0 and must pay £0| £60 billion for the privilege of being avassal state? As a previous PM once said NO,NO,NO


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